By Edward Nawotka

It has become a commonplace assertion that sometime in the next two to three years — if not sooner — we’re likely to see at least one of the US Big Six publishers merge with another. The publishing ecosystem is not longer able to support so many large-scale publishers, especially as resources need to be siphoned off to support new business growth in areas such as digital, film, gaming and transmedia. So, which of the Big Six will be the first to merge with another, the first to go? Our guess: Simon & Schuster, the CBS subsidiary is not only the smallest of the six, it is the only one that is American-owned and has fewer ties to international publishing than its competitors. If the growth opportunities in publishing are global, then S&S is at a serious disadvantage going forward.

Of course, as with anything dealing with the future, it’s a guess — which to be honest is about as much as you’ll get from so many publishing analysts these days.